Outright tips
4 points Nijman at 5/1
1 pt e/w Cross at 25/1
1 pt e/w Cullen at 66/1
1 pt e/w Suljovic at 100/1
It is a shame to see Nijman at 5/1 favourite for a tournament. It wasn’t long since I was tipping him at 300/1. But times change and Nijman is rightful favourite, but the value is getting slimmer and slimmer.
In spite of that, he remains value for this tournament. There’s no argument he’s the best player in the field on current form. His draw also isn’t too bad. If he gets past the first 2 rounds, I’d expect him to win the tournament.
Otherwise the outright betting is less simple. The top quarter is weak. No player there looks likely to win the tournament and moreso looks like they will make an easy semi-final match for the winner of quarter 2. Second favourite van Veen has been in rocky form since his surgery. Aside form him, no player has the consistent high level to win a euro tour title.
In the Bottom half, quarter 3 is absolutely stacked. Not only does is have a very strong quarter of seeds, but Ratajski, O’Connor, Gilding, and Sedlacek all make dangerous potential opponents for the seeds. It’s hard to back any of these players at short prices when it’s no guarantee they will win their first games, and if they do it won’t get easier. Van Gerwen being 3rd favourite for the tournament simply isn’t tempting when he has Ratajski round 2, a player he lost to this week, followed by an in-form Rob Cross. and that is just to make the quarter-finals. Of that quarter Rob Cross in his comeback form seems the most tempting by far at 25/1.
The bottom quarter feels quite wide-open. The seeds are by far the weakest of any quarter. James Wade for whatever reason has never warmed to the euro tour in his career, the only tour he has struggled with. Woodhouse has never won a euro tour. Searle and Mike de Decker are not in form. Kevin Doets is one of the world’s form players but in wake of his recent win, I expect he will need some time to recover mentally. That leaves only 2 other players of note. Joe Cullen has roared back to form with a few ton plus averages this week and will make a very dangerous pick at 66/1. Then Mensur Suljovic, playing infront of his home crowd. Mensur has been in his best form, arguably, since pre-covid. A quarter and a semi-final of a euro tour. He lost these last games in awful fashion but that can be attributed to not having the stamina for 7 games in 1 day. The Euro tour format could be much more forgiving to him.
So to recap
4 points Nijman at 5/1
1 pt e/w Cross at 25/1
1 pt e/w Cullen at 66/1
1 pt e/w Suljovic at 100/1
In terms of match betting, there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of big value.
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